Good evening weather world!
I hope all is well. I have been mentioning that the end of February/early March will be providing us with a -NAO (blocking) and a stormy pattern every 4/5 days. Our next storm system to look at will be coming this Wednesday. Compared to the last storm that wasn’t as cold for the I-95 corridor, this one has colder air to work with and could provide us with plowable snowfall on Wednesday (and possibly a snow day).
Please see below for the GFS and European computer model outputs:
The snow would start to break out by the time the morning rush begins, becoming heavy throughout the day. As the storms peak, it could bring some mixing to the coast. These are details I will be fine tuning over the next couple of days. I will also be fine tuning the track of the storm, which is still not finalized. If it skirts too far out to sea, the NYC metro will only see a glancing blow. If it tracks too close to the coast, this will be another rainstorm for the NYC corridor, and a big snowstorm for Eastern PA, Upstate NY, and Northern New England. With that being said, I am still giving this storm a 50% chance of 6 inches or more of snow this far out based on the latest data that I’ve analyzed. There is also still a good chance though that it tracks too close to the coast causing mixing/rain issues. I will keep you all updated throughout the rest of the week on this storms impacts and latest trends. Also, is it too early to mention that another storm will be on its heels Sunday night into Monday!?
See below for that:
Have a good evening and will talk to you soon!