Good evening everyone!
I hope that everyone is doing well.
Yesterday we had a big March snowstorm in the NYC metro area. Please be aware of the snow freezing overnight and wavering trees/power lines due to the heavy snow that fell. For the most part I think my final forecast went well…I was off little in Manhattan itself, where the “heat island effect” took place with the urbanization of the city and a strong/heavy snow band that took place of North-Central NJ – creating substance (lower snowfall rates) in New York City and 5 miles each way.
Please see the below observed snowfall totals for the region from yesterday’s storm. You can see how sharp the snow gradient was. 3.2 inches of snow fell in Central Park while 27 inches fell in Montville, N.J. 7 inches fell in Nutley while 23 inches fell in Caldwell. Thats just 5 miles with a 16 inch difference. There were just some unbelievable snow totals in western Essex, Bergen, Morris, and Somerset counties in N.J. They were under a heavy snow band, and areas right outside of that band – even by 5 miles – missed out on those heavy, heavy snow totals (which was pretty much impossible to forecast).
Now we turn our eyes to later this weekend and next week. On Monday, there is a storm coming up the Eastern seaboard. There are many options it takes once it reaches the Carolina’s. A good amount of computer guidance takes this storm out to sea, but there is an American model, the GFS, and a Canadian model, the GGEM, which brings in another impactful storm. This far out it will just be something to keep any eye on! And I will do that for you and make sure to keep you in the know! I give it a 50/50 chance of happening at this time.
Below pictures show a glancing blow for our area, but just a tick Northwest changes that for us:
After that, there also seems to be another storm on its heels. This pattern is ripe! Will talk to you all soon.