March 21 Spring Four’easter Final Snowstorm Analysis For The Northeast U.S.

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    Happy Spring everyone!

    It seems just fitting for me to be posting about our fourth Nor’easter (Four’easter as I am calling it) this month. Below I will go into detail for what you can expect tomorrow. Believe it or not, the *immediate* NYC metro area has been pretty lucky all year, with no more than 8 or 9 inches falling in one given storm. The suburbs of New York have been a different story, with up to 25 inches falling in just one storm in Morris County, N.J. Hopefully this will be the last snowstorm that I post about, but I definitely think this will be the one where NYC cashes in with more than 6 inches this time – they’ve been way too spoiled.

    Look for snow to start falling around 6/7 AM tomorrow morning. Please do not travel anywhere all day tomorrow, as you will be thanking me. The snow ramps up around 11/12AM, with the heaviest from 2PM-10PM. I expect the snow to completely shut off by around 3-5AM Thursday morning-  making this one of the longest duration storms we’ve had. I am very worried about power outages due to trees and wires falling down from the heavy, wet snow. Make sure everything is charged. This storm will have lesser wind problems away from the coastline than the past one’s we’ve had, gusting up to 35 MPH – which is still strong enough to cause problems. The heavy snow will make shoveling and cleanup difficult.

    New York City’s biggest snowstorm ever recorded in history was 11.8 inches in 1958. That’s how rare it is to get that much snowfall this late in March.

    Snow impacts:

    Storm #1 is now over and has performed as expected south of I-78. Here comes storm #2. What is curled in yellow will be what hits us tomorrow as it deepens off the coast of N.J.

    The sun angle is higher in late March, which limits snowfall totals a tad due to sticking and warmer ground temperatures. There will also be a very sharp gradient of snow north of I-80. The further north from there you go the less snow you will see, even by 5 miles. With this storm, I believe a lot of the snow totals will be based on where the heaviest snow bands set up. Last storm they were over Morris county, causing much less snow totals due to subsidence in Northeast NJ and NYC. Where will they set up this time? I like to use short range computer model guidance to determine this.

    The below picture is a model run showing the heavier snow bands possible – centered right over the I-95 corridor – slamming Philly to NYC.  There is much less snowfall as you go north and west due to that sharp cutoff I was talking about. Essex county N.J. shows 1.8 inches of liquid falling – 18 inches of snow, and Sussex County, N.J. shows only .5 inches of liquid falling – 5 inches of snow.

     

    Another short term model below that I like to use hammers NYC and NE Jersey – the green colors are 16 inches and the dark green is 20″ plus.

     

    The pictures below shows the circled heavy snow band over I-95, with much lighter snowfall rates to the Northwest of it (Into Morris county North and West). Wherever that snow band sets up will reveal who gets buried in snow – and I mean that literally.

     

    Snowfall forecast broken down by region:

    For the areas in the NYC Metro below I will give a snow range, but wherever the heavy snow bands set up, please expect the highest of that range *or in excess of it*. Where the heavy snow bands miss, please expect the lower end of that snowfall range.

    Central N.J.: 7-14 inches of snow

    Northwest of I-287 in N.J. 7-12 + inches

    Northeast N.J.: 7-13 inches +

    Jersey Shore: 6-12 inches

    NYC (Manhattan and its 5 boroughs) and the Lower Hudson Valley: 5-11 inches +

    Baltimore/Washington D.C.: 3-7 inches of snow

    Philadelphia: 6-12 inches

    This storm will have lesser impacts in New England, which is good. The last thing they need is more snow.

    Below is a map you can follow, but my snow totals are above. It does, however, show exactly the areas where the heaviest snow bands will set up.

    Thanks for following along everyone! I truly appreciate your support. If need be, tomorrow I will post a forecast update of the latest storm impacts once I see the radar and where the heavier snow bands are.

    Be safe and enjoy the snow! It’s the only weather we got!

    Snow Codomo