Say It Ain’t Snow – April Fools Snowfall Forecast (No, This Is Not A Drill)

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    Happy Easter Everybody!

    I hope that you’re all enjoying a wonderful holiday weekend. I am writing this post to unfortunately say that there is more snow in the forecast for us. I mentioned this upcoming cold and snow possibility for the beginning of April in my last post to everyone. You know what they say — April Snow showers bring May …..? Wait, what do they say for April snow? I’m not quite sure myself — but what I do know is that April will be feeling pretty cold until mid month, and with all the players on the field, tomorrow morning’s snow could be a precursor for a bigger snowfall next weekend. *Cue the tears*  — But to be honest, I want it to be warm and sunny too, however all February we had record breaking warmth, so there’s not much complaining that we can do. We’re just making up for the lost time.

    I expect the snow to begin falling around 3/4 AM. It will taper off by noon tomorrow, but not before it drops some accumulating snow for us to deal with. If the snowfall were to fall during the non-rushour commutes, I would say that it wouldn’t be that big of a deal. The snow, however quit-hitting it will be, will be very disruptive for your morning commute tomorrow. If you are not given a delayed opening, please allow yourself ample time to get where you need to go – if it comes down hard enough, even the paved surfaces will have the snow sticking (outside of NYC – Manhattan itself – of course) due to the heat island effect there.

    Current winter weather advisories:

    I expect a general 2-4 inches of snow to fall around the metro area. Areas above 300 feet in elavation can receive some 5 or even 6/7 inch snowfall totals. Where there are cities in the metro area, the snow will have a hard time sticking to the pavement because of the April sun and warm ground temperatures. When you get into the suburbs, the snow can stick to the pavement for a time.

    I like the below map for snowfall totals on colder surfaces (grass, car tops, etc.).

    You can shave off a couple inches for snowfall totals on the ground pavement.

    This is the latest short range NAM model depicting its thoughts of snowfall tomorrow:

    It has a stripe of 6 inches of snowfall across northern NJ. I don’t believe that for many of the reasons I stated above (April warmth/sun/warm ground, etc.) but if there are snow bands that set up, don’t be surprised that under those heavy snow bands someone picks up close to 6 inches, while a town or two over only gets 2 inches. If I need to update my forecast tomorrow to either raise or lower snow totals I will based on the latest radar image.

    Alright guys, that’s it for now! As the cold looks to be hanging around until the middle part of this month, don’t be surprised to hear that S word once again before the real spring time hits!

    Below is the latest GFS and CMC computer models that say HELLO to another winter weather wonderland a week from today:

    Enjoy the holiday! Hopefully the Yanks don’t get snowed out for their home opener! *Note, this is not an April fools joke, the snow bunnies will be real tomorrow morning.

    Snow Codomo