November 15 Winter Storm Forecast

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    Hi everyone!

    I bring this post with some bad news or good news — however you see the first winter storm of the season! This storm incoming will be a mixed bagged of everything – snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Your commute home tomorrow will be miserable no matter how you cut it – so drive safely and allow extra time.

    I expect the worst winter weather conditions to occur north of I-78. North of the 78 corridor, snow will break out between 1 or 2PM. If the snow starts earlier, more of it will fall. I think the snow will have no problem sticking on colder surfaces like cars and the grass, but a harder time sticking on roadways and pavement. Snow will also have a hard time sticking in the urbanized areas. Once you get into the north and west suburbs, that’s where the snow can stick. I believe that there will be a heavy thump of snow – for sure from 2-4 PM. Then, from south to north, that snow will start to change over to sleet and then freezing rain, eventually ending as rain. The longer the cold air hangs on, the more snow that will fall. It’s impossible to predict – but I believe that for our area 1-3 inches of snow is possible. It’s going to be a fight and will be interesting to watch it on the radar. South and east of us a coating to 2 inches is possible in the more urbanized areas. As you go further north and west, 3-6 inches of snow is possible, before a changeover.

    What can go wrong:

    -If the arctic air that we have in place puts up a fight and keeps the cold air in place longer, making snow totals higher. That is what happnened during Halloween a couple years ago. I don’t see that happening based on the latest guidance, but if it does I will you know tomorrow.

    -If the warm air wins out, we may see only snow for an hour so with little to no accumulation, and then changeover to rain.

    I like the going forecast as of now though along with the below maps:

    Snow approaching from the south on the Euro model:

    Snowfall forecast map:

     Be safe out there tomorrow evening everyone!

    Snow Codomo