Good afternoon everyone!
Based off of the latest data I am seeing, I have decided to raise snowfall totals. Snowfall has already over performed in the Baltimore/Philadelphia area as the low level arctic cold air has been very strong. There will be a wall of white coming in within the next hour, with a heavy thump of snow for a few hours to follow. Snowfall rates can be as strong as 1-2 inches per hour under heavy snow bands that roll through. There will then be a period of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow, starting in the late evening, before the transition to heavy rain.
Here are the current winter weather advisories (with updated winter storm warnings in the pink counties from the National Weather Service):
Here is the current radar showing our storm coming up the east coast:
Zoomed in view:
This map below shows the snowfall rates with this storm once it picks up in intensity at 1-2″ per hour:
*The evening commute will be very dangerous – Please stay off the roads if you can starting from 3PM and on.*
This map below shows the storm at its heaviest point, with heavy snow bands right over NNJ and sleet making its way north in the pink:
The snow in Manhattan (and other urbanized areas in NY & NJ) will stick slower than the suburbs of NY, CT, & NJ. In these urbanized areas East of the NJ Turnpike, I expect 1-3 inches of snow. 2-5 inches of snow is possible in Eastern Bergen, Passaic, and Essex counties in NJ. Northwestern Bergen/Passaic counties and Morris county can expect 3-6 inches of snow, with 4-8+ inches of snow possible in NW Jersey and NY State. Some silver lining here: hopefully the rain will wash all the snow away!
The below is the latest snowfall map from the NWS
Please be safe everyone, and enjoy the first snowfall of the season!