The Start of Winter 2019


    Hi everyone!

    Hope all is well. 

    I wanted to write a post about the upcoming weather pattern we will be entering. Let’s just say – it won’t be fun. In the near future we have two storms to track, but afterwards we will be entering a much colder pattern. And with the cold in place will always come the possibility for snow. For now, let’s talk about Thursday night-Friday morning and this weekend. 

    After 10PM on Thursday you can expect snow to move in from the city on west. South East of the city will have mixing/rain. The snow with this system will be light, but I expect it to be disruptive enough for you to want to leave extra time for your morning commute. A coating to 2 inches of snow is possible. 

    After this system, all eyes will turn to the weekend – Saturday into Sunday. I’m not going to lie, this system will be huge, no matter what type of precipitation falls and it will impact your plans. I won’t have a handle on this storm until the Thursday night/Friday system moves out of the way. West of the city, what I can say is that you should prepare for at least some type of wintry precipitation. And the further north and west you go the higher that probability becomes. It’s still too far out to make a forecast. It could be a driving/flooding rainstorm, historic snowstorm, or an crippling ice storm – Just hope for no ice, that would be the worst of all. Our most accurate computer model, the European model, drops 3-6” of snow, followed by ice, then rain, then snow again to end. But the American model, the GFS, is a much warmer solution, with mostly rain and snow to begin. What I fear is that this storm is so strong and dynamic that it creates its own cold air – leading to a forecast that no one can predict like the 6 inches of November 2018 snow we had. That along with a lot more data I won’t bore you with suggests no one can get the forecast accurate this far out.  

    I like the below map as a prelim view, and will fine tune the forecast by Friday for you all. The storm is still over the Pacific Ocean, so once it enters the west coast the forecast can become more accurate. 

    Until then, enjoy and be safe! 

    Snow Codomo