Updated Saturday 7 AM:
We are going to be gearing up for our first mixed bag of winter weather for the season. The effects of this storm will all depend on where you live, as just a 5 mile difference from north to south can determine if you see rain, sleet, or snow.
The snow will begin around 5PM-6PM from west to east. We will have a window of heavy snowfall for about 3-5 hours. This is the time frame that the snow will fall heavily (thump.) After this, the snow will change over to a sleet and freezing rain/mix. Where you live depends on how long the icing will occur. If you are further you away from the coast this can be a disrupting storm as the low level cold air will hang on, prolonging the sleet/freezing rain for you.
For areas south and east of NYC, I like a coating-1” of snow, followed by a quick changeover to ice and rain. For NYC I like a C-3”of snow. Areas to the north and west of NYC will have a more prolonged winter weather event. Eastern Essex, eastern Bergen, eastern Passaic, western Hudson and western union counties in NJ can expect 1-3/2-4″ of snow, followed by .1-.3 of ice, and then rain to wash it away (before the flash freeze Sunday night of course.) Western Bergen, western Passaic, and western Morris counties should expect 2-5/3-6 inches of snow, followed by .2-.4 of ice. Extreme NW Jersey and the Hudson valley can see upwards of 4-8”, followed by icing, if the cold air hangs on long enough.
I am most afraid of the icing (sleet/freezing rain) with this storm. Let’s hope that the mid levels of the atmosphere warm up fast enough N&W of the city bringing rain in quicker. Otherwise, we will have a serious icing issue N&W. Please stay off the roads tomorrow night north and west of the city! The weather will be ugly. Park your cars away from trees, etc.
Things that could go wrong: The cold air is stronger than what is currently forecast (like what happened in November in our area), leading to higher snowfall totals and more ice to fall, or the storm track is further west and warmer, limited our winter weather completely with mostly rain.
I like the below map from AWxNYC on Twitter, (might be too high in places) and will tweak my above forecast if I see any serious changes coming our way.
The below shows the icing potential:
Whatever snow that falls should be washed away by the incoming rain, but temps will be dropping dramatically during the day Sunday, with a low of 0 possible Monday morning. Be ready to bundle up and stay warm! Thanks for following everyone!
Enjoy and be safe