February 12 Winter Storm

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Hi all. Happy Monday!

We have a winter storm incoming for both of our rush-hours tomorrow. I expect the snow to start between 6:30-8:30 AM from west to east. It will then transition over to a mix of sleet/freezing rain, ending as rain from I-287, south and east.

I am afraid this storm will be much more damaging than the past this winter in terms of ice. The low level cold air will hang on longer, increasing our sleet/freezing rain chances. As with storms in the past this year, as you head further north and west from the city, the longer you will hold onto sleet/snow. Let’s hope we get more rain towards the end of the storm, washing away all of this mess.

Please stay off the roads tomorrow north of I-78 if you can! It will be a terrible day to be on the road with slipping and sliding.

For Manhattan and urban NJ, I like a coating-3 inches of snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain. As you head into the suburbs of NJ (western Essex county, Bergen county (away from the coastline), etc. I like 2-4 inches of snow, followed by more prolonged sleet/freezing rain. North and west of I-287 I like 3-6 inches of snow, followed by heavy sleet/freezing rain accumulations.

The below map is a good one to follow.

Precipitation types by timeframe:

Shows the quick burst of snow around 7/8 AM in the blue in North Jersey below

Source (weathermodels.com)

The pink color shows where the ice will be falling before the changeover to rain in the metro below

Things that can wrong: the cold air fights on long enough, increasing our snowfall totals and ice accumulations.

Thanks all and be safe!

 Snow Codomo