Welcome back to what will be an exciting winter season! Our first measurable snowfall will be coming tomorrow, just in time for the holiday season.
I expect the current rainfall to changeover to snow in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Once that happens, the snow will begin to stick with the temperatures dropping and the sun going down. The evening commute will be a bad one tomorrow, so if you have the option to work from home, I suggest you do so.
Below is the going forecast
If the rain changes over more quickly to snow, I expect these totals to be higher. There will also be a deformation band of snow setting up tomorrow evening. Where that band sets up could determine who gets 6 inches or more and who gets 3 or less. This could be a difference in just 5 miles from west to east as well. It’s impossible to forecast where that will be, so be on the lookout tomorrow to the radar to see if the band pivots over your area or not. Could make the difference of you having to dig out or not.
The first picture below shows where the latest model is showing this band. If that’s the case, Western/Central/Southern New Jersey’s snow totals will need to be raised. But if that band shifts northeast by 20 miles, we in the NYC metro will be getting 6 inches or more of snow. We will know tomorrow!
Be safe out there and enjoy the first snow of the season!